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Showing posts from April, 2020

Have We Hit Bottom?

  On April 1st 2020 the Dow completed its worst first quarter in 124 years .  You needn’t have been a fool to lose significant money (the Gabriel fund profited 11% the first quarter 2020).  The market remains overvalued, and I anticipate the S&P 500 will revisit March’s low around 2200.  The model is Bearish for April 2020.      Calling a market bottom is very difficult, and the S&P 500 is up about 13% since March 22nd 2020.   Source: Yahoo Finance This resurgence is in response to the federal reserve lowering interest rates to 0%, and a historically large economic stimulus plan.  While both of these are bullish, consider market valuations.  The last time market valuations were as high as recent ( Buffets Ratio reached 155% in February 2020) was prior to the Dot.com Crash (Buffets Ratio reached 150% in January 2000).  Buffets Ratio dropped to 71% before the market hit bottom in 2002.  Currently Buffets Ratio is 113%.   Source: GuruFocus