Many have suggested that our economic recovery will resemble the letter U or V. However, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Employment will likely require at least several years to recover. A rapid recovery is: Instead envision the recovery resembling a check mark (think Nike swoosh): This is consistent with the historical analogues we discussed last month the Great Depression and Japan’s Lost Decade(s), although in both of these cases the ‘tail’ (recovery) extended beyond a decade. The Congressional Budget Office recently revised their estimate for Real Output (GDP) and employment, and they expect both to recover within the next several years: Source: Congressional Budget Office Both society and the markets are ripe for turmoil over the next several years. The Cold War with China and civil unrest will flare on and off possibly even conflagrating into a civil or world war. This instability will manifest itself in market turbulence. Currently